Featured Publications
Seasonality of endemic COVID-19
Townsend J, Hassler H, Lamb A, Sah P, Nishio A, Nguyen C, Tew A, Galvani A, Dornburg A. Seasonality of endemic COVID-19. MBio 2023, 14: e01426-23. PMID: 37937979, PMCID: PMC10746271, DOI: 10.1128/mbio.01426-23.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchPublic health interventionsSARS-CoV-2Health interventionsSARS-CoV-2 infectionCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2 circulationEffective public health policiesLocal public health effortsEndemic COVID-19Public health effortsPublic healthPublic health policyLong-term dataCOVID-19 transmissionHealth effortsMedical preparednessVaccination driveHealth policyVaried interventionsEndemic diseaseSeasonal surgesInterventionInfectionEffective healthcareEndemic pathogens
2013
Probabilistic uncertainty analysis of epidemiological modeling to guide public health intervention policy
Gilbert JA, Meyers LA, Galvani AP, Townsend JP. Probabilistic uncertainty analysis of epidemiological modeling to guide public health intervention policy. Epidemics 2013, 6: 37-45. PMID: 24593920, PMCID: PMC4316830, DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2013.11.002.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsProbabilistic uncertainty analysisParameter uncertaintiesTypical sensitivity analysisUncertainty analysisDynamic modelDynamic infectious disease modelsSensitivity analysisMathematical modelingEpidemiological modelingInfectious disease modelIntervention policiesPublic health intervention policiesGlobal uncertaintyPolicy makersModel predictionsEpidemiological outcomesQuantitative predictionsProbability of successPoint estimatesPolicyUncertaintyLevel of vaccinationRelative importanceModelingHealth policy