2013
Probabilistic uncertainty analysis of epidemiological modeling to guide public health intervention policy
Gilbert JA, Meyers LA, Galvani AP, Townsend JP. Probabilistic uncertainty analysis of epidemiological modeling to guide public health intervention policy. Epidemics 2013, 6: 37-45. PMID: 24593920, PMCID: PMC4316830, DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2013.11.002.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsProbabilistic uncertainty analysisParameter uncertaintiesTypical sensitivity analysisUncertainty analysisDynamic modelDynamic infectious disease modelsSensitivity analysisMathematical modelingEpidemiological modelingInfectious disease modelIntervention policiesPublic health intervention policiesGlobal uncertaintyPolicy makersModel predictionsEpidemiological outcomesQuantitative predictionsProbability of successPoint estimatesPolicyUncertaintyLevel of vaccinationRelative importanceModelingHealth policyOptimal targeting of seasonal influenza vaccination toward younger ages is robust to parameter uncertainty
Mbah M, Medlock J, Meyers LA, Galvani AP, Townsend JP. Optimal targeting of seasonal influenza vaccination toward younger ages is robust to parameter uncertainty. Vaccine 2013, 31: 3079-3089. PMID: 23684837, PMCID: PMC3764605, DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2013.04.052.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchConceptsOptimal vaccine allocationParameter uncertaintiesMathematical modelProbability distributionConsideration of uncertaintiesOutcome measuresVaccine allocationHuman population immunitySeasonal influenza vaccinationControl of influenzaUncertainty analysisFace of uncertaintyInfluenza vaccinationVaccine efficacySeasonal influenzaPopulation immunityUncertaintyEpidemiological dataHigh riskYounger ageYoung adultsEpidemiological parametersOptimal agePrevious recommendationsVaccine
2012
The influence of altruism on influenza vaccination decisions
Shim E, Chapman GB, Townsend JP, Galvani AP. The influence of altruism on influenza vaccination decisions. Journal Of The Royal Society Interface 2012, 9: 2234-2243. PMID: 22496100, PMCID: PMC3405754, DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2012.0115.Peer-Reviewed Original ResearchMeSH KeywordsAdolescentAdultAgedAltruismDecision MakingFemaleHumansInfluenza, HumanMaleMiddle AgedModels, TheoreticalVaccinationConceptsInfluenza vaccination decisionsVaccination decisionsImpact of altruismInfluence of altruismVaccination policyGame theoryPersonal payoffAltruismInfluenza vaccinationOptimal vaccination policiesDisease burdenPublic health outcomesHealth outcomesAltruistic motivationTotal costPolicyDecisionsEpidemiological modelPotential strategyPayoffsAssumptionSurvey studyMorbidityVaccinationFundamental assumptions